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JetBrokers Europe
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June 2011
THE MARKETPLACE
by Tom Crowell Jr., President

The business aircraft market has gone through a historic change that resulted in prices declining between 40 to 80 percent since early 2008. Some values are still dropping, but most have stabilized. We have seen some false starts in price escalation that, unfortunately, were unsustainable.

Older aircraft have taken the biggest hit, with Gulfstream GII's selling below $500K, Challenger 600's around $1MM, and GIII's well below $2MM. Falcon 50's have been falling and some have dropped below $2.0MM.

Late model large cabin aircraft are the only segment of the market that is looking up. Falling inventory of these G550's, Global XRS's, Falcon 7X's, etc., and stable demand has led to prices firming. Unless there is an influx of inventory, I would expect to see price escalation for these aircraft.

All other segments are still flooded with inventory compounded by fractional operators dumping late model small and medium jets, further inflating inventory.

The reduction of the fractional fleets has adversely affected the Hawker 800XP's, Hawker 400XP's, and Citation Bravos causing a wave across these markets. Once buyers see they can buy a late model Hawker 400XP for $2.4MM, they won't pay as much for a Beechjet 400A or a late 90's Citation Ultra. This pushes the whole market down.

Older models such as Hawker 700's, 800's, Citation III's, Lear 55's in turn are less desirable with the 700's trading around $500-700K and the 800's around $1MM.

Older small jets such as the Lear 35A's, Citation II's, Falcon 10's are in the $450K to $750K range.

The early GIV's are still trading in the $6.5MM to $8.5MM range, as well as Falcon 900B's. The GIVSP's and Falcon 900EX's are firming up and will soon follow the larger aircraft mentioned earlier.

Also, we have had a record number of new aircraft built between 1998 and 2008, replacing the last manufacturing bubble of 1978 to 1981.

The question we are constantly asked is, "When will the prices recover?" Typical business aircraft market downturns run for 2 to 3 years and then take 5 years to top out again. Sometimes a market cycle tops out above the last one - other times it doesn't approach it. If we were experiencing a typical downturn, we should currently be in the recovery mode. This is such a severe downtown, that even my optimistic side does not see us in the recovery mode yet. We are seeing some markets still reaching for their bottom.

THE NUMBERS OF BUSINESS AVIATION
by Jeremy R.C. Cox

Business and other segments of General Aviation are by nature, fairly exclusive realms. There are 6,880,000,000 people on this planet, and there are over 30,000 business jet and turbo-prop aircraft that in the world, which equates to 215,000 people to every business aircraft. However, there are really only about 200,000 actual business aircraft owners. Therefore, less than 0.003% of the world's population can actually be classified as a business aircraft owner. The business aviation fleet (marketplace) is growing at a pace of just under 3% of the total fleet, per annum.

The Business Aviation Fleet is broken down into the following categories and numbers:

Large Jets
Medium Jets
Light Jets
Turbo-Props
4,500
6,766
7,542
12,529
Total Aircraft 31,337

In 2007 between January 1 and December 31, there were 2,681 retail-to-retail transactions worldwide. In 2009 between the same period, 1,604 retail-to-retail transactions took place, again worldwide. Since January of this year to-date (May 25, 2011), there have been 678 transactions. What is very revealing about these historical and current numbers is the fact that only 20 dealer, broker and trading FBO companies transacted 6 or more aircraft during the whole of 2009, while the rest were sporadic sales.

The average number of business aircraft sold, per dealer, broker and trading FBO companies is about 1.7 aircraft (2009 figures: 1,604 transactions between 925 companies), but in truth almost half of the resale transactions (>40%) are now being conducted by slightly over 2% of all of these companies put together. JetBrokers, Inc. is one of the companies firmly placed within this 2% grouping.

Industry-wide, the average number of days on market (the number of days from listing agreement signing to transaction closing) is currently running at about 350 days. Most of the aircraft that are professionally represented by JetBrokers, Inc. sell within 60 to 180 days when they are allowed to be correctly priced.

ALL N#'S SET TO EXPIRE
by Tim Keeney

Your airplane's registration - your N# - will expire in the next three years; in fact, it may have already. Effective October 2010, the FAA requires you to renew your registration by December 31, 2013 and then re-register every three years thereafter. The purpose of the rule is to maintain an accurate aircraft registry database, a goal not achieved by the Triennial Aircraft Registration Report. The FAA estimated in 2009 that one third of the 357,000 aircraft registrations on file at the time were inaccurate.

This database is used for ownership determination and in response to an overdue flight or downed aircraft report. Law enforcement and other government agencies use the database for their own purposes. The Federal Register's summary of the rule also mentioned inclusion of registry information and status on ATC displays depicting each flight operating on a flight plan in the National Airspace System.

So, how will you know when your registration expires, when to re-register your airplane and how to do it? For aircraft registered before October 1, 2010, consult the following chart for your scheduled expiration:

Issued:
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
Expires on:
3/31/11
6/30/11
9/30/11
12/31/11
3/31/12
6/30/12
9/30/12
12/31/12
3/31/13
6/30/13
9/30/13
12/31/13
Application Window:
11/1/2010 - 1/31/2011
2/1/2011 - 4/30/2011
5/1/2011 - 7/31/2011
8/1/2011 - 10/31/2011
11/1/2011 - 1/31/2012
2/1/2012 - 4/30/2012
5/1/2012 - 7/31/2012
8/1/2012 - 10/31/2012
11/1/2012 - 1/31/2013
2/1/2013 - 4/30/2013
5/1/2013 - 7/31/2013
8/1/2013 - 10/31/2013

Aircraft registered after October 1, 2010, will have an expiration date on their registration document. Also, the FAA will mail you an expiration reminder six months prior to your current registration's expiration so it would behoove you to check that the FAA has your correct address. You may do this by looking up your N# on the FAA's web site at http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/NNum_Inquiry.aspx.

You must submit an application form (available on the FAA.gov web site) during the proper filing window to ensure that your new registration arrives prior to the expiration of your current document. Expiration of your airplane's registration will result in your airplane being grounded. Re-registrations that do not require changing information (i.e. names, addresses) may be completed online.

The cost identified in the rule is $5. Although, some groups are concerned that FAA could increase the renewal fee to raise revenue for the agency. Finally, be advised that obtaining a replacement registration does not satisfy the requirement to re-register your airplane.

DIRECT OPERATING COST

The DOC (Direct Operating Cost) used in the comparison charts includes fuel ($4.50 per gallon), engine reserves (either MSP or overhaul agency estimates), and maintenance costs using information gathered from operators. All inspection estimates are based upon the aircraft operating 400 hours per year and averaging 1.5 hour legs.

We have added many new aircraft in this issue and would like to know if we are inaccurate on any of this data. We have had to remove some models to make room. You will be able to find the removed models on our web site. Please call 1-800-532-6900 with any information.

JET AIRCRAFT COMPARISON SUMMARY

TURBO PROPS COMPARISON SUMMARY



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